tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3122559349668175762.post6222500588435346476..comments2024-02-13T08:37:36.610+00:00Comments on Random Spaniard: Carta abierta al presidente de Malawi@RandomSpaniardhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/02297221263049066355noreply@blogger.comBlogger6125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3122559349668175762.post-52972234379596132622009-12-14T12:05:14.307+00:002009-12-14T12:05:14.307+00:00Kwacha ! Kwacha ! Kwacha !Kwacha ! Kwacha ! Kwacha !Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3122559349668175762.post-65858592280191807592009-12-11T13:05:06.573+00:002009-12-11T13:05:06.573+00:00I am Anonymous No 1 (not any of the other excellen...I am Anonymous No 1 (not any of the other excellent anonymi)I appreciated your courteous response to me, but let me explain my frustration a bit more clearly.Your exchange-rate graphs irrefutably show that Malawi's fixed rate is a fixed rate (a horizontal line)and Uganda's variable rate is a variable rate (a line that goes up and down). I think I could live without such graphs. <br />This month, the IMF Big Bwana and the USAID Big Bwana flew into Malawi and declared that all's well in Malawi (more or less) and that the aid flood can be let loose once again by all those western donors who are itching to dump their aid dollars. No doubt they were brandishing statistics such as your own.<br />Maybe they could have looked around a bit and seen some hungry people in the Shire Valley being fed by the WFP (four consecutive maize "surpluses" notwithstanding)and talked with people who question Bingu's private jet- purchase and his groteque private palace in Thyolo when Malawi's forex bureaus are dry.<br />But they are busy men with a lot of dollars to dispose of.<br />Perhaps we, less-busy mortals, should be a little more questioning of statistics?Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3122559349668175762.post-14230473757910357692009-12-11T09:40:38.460+00:002009-12-11T09:40:38.460+00:00just to through a caveat on these basic economic d...just to through a caveat on these basic economic discussions that the theory of exchange rate management recommends depreciation or devaluation of the national currency - simply because the analysis is a theoretical construct that is based on a number of assumptions. Devaluation is not a penacea fro economic growth but its symptom that foundmental factors are not working properly in the economic system. Please do not be too simplistic in your discussion.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3122559349668175762.post-68401778395428719742009-12-10T15:05:44.614+00:002009-12-10T15:05:44.614+00:00You are damn right, the President has been fightin...You are damn right, the President has been fighting against devaluation of the kwacha for the last five years and the result; failure to pay fuel suppliers, forex shortages and ofcourse hurt tobacco farmers in the process. Is it true that our economy will really grow at 7.7 percent and not 6.3 percent which was earlier announced? What do you thinkAnonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3122559349668175762.post-54327865227240991152009-12-10T10:44:55.800+00:002009-12-10T10:44:55.800+00:00Anonymous,
Thank you for your comment. I cannot ...Anonymous,<br /><br />Thank you for your comment. I cannot quite tell from it whether you agree with me or not - but I am sorry that you don't find these stats as fun as I do.<br /><br />In any case I think you misunderstand the point of quoting this and next year's GDP growth rates: it was merely to show that a huge depreciation does NOT have a negative impact on the domestic economy.<br /><br />The case FOR a flexible exchange rate is made without any recourse to stats here:<br /><br />(1) I quote the Governor of the BoU as saying that with a fixed rate the government was GROSSLY cheating coffee farmers. The same could be said about Malawi's tobacco farmers.<br /><br />(2) Non-coffee exports in Uganda boomed.<br /><br />(3)Rationing of imports stopped being an issue.<br /><br />and (4) it has underpinned 20 years of 7% growth and huge poverty reduction in Uganda - this is not about a difference in a stat for one year. It's about the track record.<br /><br />As you say maybe I could have made point (3) a little more colourful by mentioning the rationing of fuel.<br /><br />In any case sorry to disappoint you on your expectations.@RandomSpaniardhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/02297221263049066355noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3122559349668175762.post-24307486990529848762009-12-10T09:54:17.840+00:002009-12-10T09:54:17.840+00:00I am always surprised, Bernabe, how a clever perso...I am always surprised, Bernabe, how a clever person such as yourself can spend so much of his time on meaningless statistics. Do you think Malawians are going to be much concerned by an economic growth rate that happens -- perhaps -- to be 1% behind Uganda's and are going to overwhelm their government with demands for a devaluation of the kwacha on that basis? The recent fuel-supply crisis may be more on their minds.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.com