And two more commodity-price related charts to finish off the week. The first one plots oil tanker real daily rates for the past 33 years. Interesting that whilst current rates are certainly low ($34,000 per day) they do not appear to be as low as they were in the first half of the 1980s... but, wait a moment! The rates for the 80s refer to a 250,000 ton single hull vessel, whereas the current rate refers to a 285,000 ton double hull vessel, so perhaps real rates are closer to the 1980s bottom that it appears at first sight.
Tanker rates have, of course, not fallen as much as dry bulk rates (iron ore, coal, grain) with the Baltic Exchange's Dry Index currently being nearly 80% below what it was at its peak in May last year, despite a tremedous rally since hitting the botton at the beginning of December (it has increased by 350% since!).
Bsanchez,the information is very interesting. Thank for the correction.
ReplyDeleteMerco.
Merco,
ReplyDeleteInteresante artículo de Lloyds List hoy sobre el "almacenaje flotante" de petróleo. A propósito de nuestro intercambio en el blog de Rallo, lo reproduzco aquí. También incluyo el enlace, pero creo que no podrás acceder a la página si no tienes suscripción.
http://www.lloydslist.com/ll/epaper/ll/pagePreview.htm?pubCode=001&issueNo=59928&page=15
VLCCs offload crude as floating storage charters end
Total said to have sold to BP while NITC vessels on the move
By Liz McCarthy - Friday 22 May 2009
AT LEAST three of the 30 very large crude carriers chartered to store oil have sold or discharged their cargoes this week, as higher oil prices undermine the economics driving global floating storage.
Cuts in tankers storing crude could further drive down spot charter rates as freed-up tonnage re-enters the already depressed tanker market.
Oil traders and companies began chartering tankers for periods of three-to-six months for floating storage earlier this year, as the oil price contango widened. This is when the future price of crude is higher than the spot price.
But recent rises in crude saw French oil major Total reportedly sell two lots of oil stored on Euronav’s 291,180 dwt, 2008-built Olympia , to another oil giant, BP.
Total was unavailable for comment, while a Euronav representative said that the ship had never been used for storage.
The Olympia arrived in Hound Point, Scotland, in mid-March to load its cargo of North Sea Forties crude, and has remained anchored off Lowestoft port since then, according to AIS data.
Another two other VLCCs have either discharged their cargo or are in transit to offload.
The 317,130 dwt, 2008-built Hirmand , appeared to be sailing to Rotterdam, where it was likely to discharge, Lloyd’s MIU Apex analysts said.
The National Iranian Tanker Co-owned VLCC visited Asaluyeh Terminal, Iran, in February and until two days ago had been anchored outside Kharg Island.
Another VLCC owned by NITC, the 299,420 dwt, 2002-built Huwayzeh , had also showed signs of discharging its crude cargo.
AIS data showed that the ship had visited Soorosh Terminal, Iran, in mid-March. Last week, the vessel visited Jamnagar Terminal in India, where Reliance Industries own a 670,000 bpd refinery facility.
The Huwayzeh was expected in Fujairah this week, AIS data showed. The Apex analysts believed it was ballasting back to the Middle East Gulf, having discharged its stored cargo.
A list of inactive VLCCs also includes seven anchored off Galveston, in the US Gulf, and four outside Lowestoft, off the east coast of the UK. “I think that we will see some oil sold off storage to go into land stocks to go through refineries,” said one London analyst.
Some VLCCs being used for storage could be coming to the end of their time charter contracts, which could also force charterers to sell cargoes.
But with the price of oil breaking through the $60 per barrel barrier this week, traders would make a tidy profit, given they would have bought crude for around $35-$40 per barrel.
However, with as much as 100m barrels estimated to be in floating storage, the release of all crude held on VLCCs could depress current prices, helping push the market back to a contango, analysts have said.
Muy interesante. Dice 100 millones de barriles no? No sé si esa cantidad podrá deprimir el precio, supongo que ya tienen los contratos de venta en marcha desde hace mucho tiempo...
ReplyDeleteDe todas formas, aunque parezca fácil la jugada, no lo es en absoluto y más en mercados tan líquidos.
Gracias por ponerlo porque efectivamente no me deja acceder. :)
Un saludo.
Merco